NMFS Science for Closed Zones is Questionable
In September 2021, an article published in Marine Biology, Journal of Life in Oceans and Coastal Waters, was distributed by the NMFS as a paper and computer model that might be used as a possible decision-making tool for determining whether to open Closed Zones off East and Gulf of Mexico coasts.
![](https://billfish.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Screen-Shot-2022-02-11-at-1.34.01-PM-1030x732.png)
An example of the PRISM model. Yellow colors represent areas of higher probability of fishery interaction and dark purple represent areas of lower probability of fishery interaction. Credit: NOAA Fisheries
This model called the “Highly Migratory Species Predictive Spatial Modeling (PRiSM) would be an analytical framework for assessing the performance of spatial fisheries management.”
A review of the paper identified flaws that should preclude the application of this PRISM model to any Closed Zone Decisions. The paper presented an exercise of using a binary logistic regression model to predict the probability of bycatch by pelagic longline and benthic longline fisheries. The method of binary logistic regression is a powerful tool for estimating binary probabilities if it is used correctly. However, TBF’s review did not substantiate the correct application of the method.
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