In September 2021, an article published in Marine Biology, Journal of Life in Oceans and Coastal Waters, was distributed by the NMFS as a paper and computer model that might be used as a possible decision-making tool for determining whether to open Closed Zones off East and Gulf of Mexico coasts.
![](https://dev.billfish.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Screen-Shot-2022-02-11-at-1.34.01-PM-1030x732-1.png)
This model called the “Highly Migratory Species Predictive Spatial Modeling (PRiSM) would be an analytical framework for assessing the performance of spatial fisheries management.”
A review of the paper identified flaws that should preclude the application of this PRISM model to any Closed Zone Decisions. The paper presented an exercise of using a binary logistic regression model to predict the probability of bycatch by pelagic longline and benthic longline fisheries. The method of binary logistic regression is a powerful tool for estimating binary probabilities if it is used correctly. However, TBF’s review did not substantiate the correct application of the method.
Stay up-to-date on this and other related news by signing up for TBF’s newsletter here. To further support TBF’s mission consider donating or joining our team by becoming a member.